Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 30, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will Aljamain Sterling fight Kevin Vallejos next?98¢▲ +93.9%2
No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?100¢▲ +91.9%3Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%4Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%5
Porto 2: David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper de Jong100¢▲ +80.5%6Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%
Will Aljamain Sterling fight Kevin Vallejos next?98¢▲ +93.9%2No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by September 30?100¢▲ +91.9%3Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%4Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%5Porto 2: David Jorda Sanchis vs Jesper de Jong100¢▲ +80.5%6Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 98%AI 12%+86 pp gapSaudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Market 4%AI 84%-80 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 58%AI 12%+46 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Market 1%AI 41%-40 pp gap
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 58%AI 12%+46 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Market 1%AI 41%-40 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
New to prediction markets? Start with the beginner guides. Looking for a full field rather than a single market? Browse live odds by topic.