Skip to content

← Dashboard · Politics

Updated 30 min. ago

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?

Politics
Log in for watchlist

9 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▲ +2.0%1W
Yes 9¢No 92¢

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$2M

24h vol.

$38.5K

1w vol.

$303.5K

1m vol.

$1.4M

Liquidity

$58.5K

Bid / Ask

8¢ / 9¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

8¢

Start date

Jul 26, 2026

End date

Nov 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
8¢$3,239
7¢$14,078
6¢$107,060
5¢$22,406
4¢$85,796
3¢$7,186
2¢$6,974
1¢$16,481
Asks (sell)Size
9¢$11,192
10¢$8,464
11¢$5,157
12¢$300
15¢$704
16¢$1,605
20¢$5
21¢$6
22¢$25
23¢$26

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 78%Sells 22%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
3 hr. agoBuy92¢33
3 hr. agoBuy8¢27
3 hr. agoBuy8¢6
3 hr. agoSell8¢34
3 hr. agoSell92¢34
3 hr. agoBuy92¢399
3 hr. agoSell92¢89
3 hr. agoSell92¢49
3 hr. agoBuy8¢48
3 hr. agoBuy8¢213
3 hr. agoSell8¢200
3 hr. agoBuy8¢200
3 hr. agoBuy9¢34
3 hr. agoBuy91¢34
3 hr. agoBuy9¢375
3 hr. agoBuy91¢365
3 hr. agoBuy91¢10
3 hr. agoBuy8¢15,000
3 hr. agoBuy92¢413
3 hr. agoBuy92¢5,000
3 hr. agoBuy92¢5,000
3 hr. agoBuy92¢82
3 hr. agoSell8¢8
3 hr. agoBuy92¢200
3 hr. agoSell8¢46
3 hr. agoBuy92¢200
3 hr. agoSell8¢3,472
3 hr. agoBuy92¢580
4 hr. agoBuy93¢5
4 hr. agoSell93¢5
5 hr. agoBuy8¢20
5 hr. agoBuy92¢20
5 hr. agoBuy93¢100
5 hr. agoSell93¢100
5 hr. agoSell7¢399
5 hr. agoBuy7¢97
5 hr. agoSell93¢19
5 hr. agoSell93¢283
6 hr. agoBuy93¢269
6 hr. agoSell93¢14
6 hr. agoBuy7¢27
6 hr. agoSell93¢28
6 hr. agoSell93¢200
6 hr. agoSell93¢2,719
6 hr. agoBuy93¢5
6 hr. agoBuy93¢1,531
6 hr. agoBuy93¢85
6 hr. agoBuy93¢200
6 hr. agoSell7¢898
8 hr. agoBuy94¢5

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.