US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

From the daily AI research

The market price of 82.5% is supported by the absence in the available results of a confirmed qualifying U.S. impact and by reports of a temporary ceasefire, but the situation is unusually fragile: renewed hostilities, mediator proposals, and Pentagon preparations leave meaningful last-minute strike risk. The key empirical questions are whether the current pause is actually holding, whether Washington has authorized or executed a qualifying strike, and whether any incident would satisfy the narrow territory, weapon, attribution, and impact definitions. I estimate YES at 78%, four points below the market because recent reports of renewed conflict and active U.S. preparations are specific downside evidence, while the order book is ask-heavy and historical comparable markets resolved Yes only 68.6% of the time. Confidence is low because the supplied resolution source is broad rather than a single authority, search results are conflicting, and prior related Polymarket markets demonstrate significant dispute risk.

Two of the key facts

• Iranian reporting dated October 18-19 describes a newly effective two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and planned Islamabad negotiations, but also calls the truce fragile and warns that related regional strikes could unravel it. [1][2]
• Available conflict trackers and reporting describe the broader June arrangement as collapsed or not in force and report mediator efforts to propose another temporary ceasefire, indicating substantial uncertainty over what agreement currently governs. [7][9]