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Updated 12 min. ago

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31?

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1 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.4%1W
Yes 1¢No 99¢

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$1M

24h vol.

$71.6K

1w vol.

$367.2K

1m vol.

$1M

Liquidity

$209.9K

Bid / Ask

1¢ / 1¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

1¢

Start date

Oct 1, 2026

End date

Nov 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
1¢$13,447
0¢$3,155
0¢$30,191
0¢$37,321
0¢$82,447
Asks (sell)Size
1¢$1,357
1¢$70
1¢$1,810
1¢$6,210
1¢$44,801
1¢$4,082
1¢$9,932
1¢$10,470
1¢$8,366
2¢$9,020

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 92%Sells 8%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
38 min. agoBuy100¢5
38 min. agoSell100¢5
38 min. agoBuy100¢500
38 min. agoSell100¢93
38 min. agoSell100¢402
38 min. agoSell100¢5
2 hr. agoSell1¢271
2 hr. agoSell100¢5
2 hr. agoSell100¢80
2 hr. agoSell100¢75
2 hr. agoSell100¢72
2 hr. agoSell100¢39
3 hr. agoBuy99¢3,108
3 hr. agoBuy1¢20
3 hr. agoBuy1¢50
3 hr. agoBuy1¢3,038
4 hr. agoBuy99¢500
4 hr. agoBuy1¢500
4 hr. agoBuy99¢372
4 hr. agoSell99¢101
4 hr. agoBuy1¢271
5 hr. agoSell99¢139
5 hr. agoBuy99¢90
5 hr. agoBuy99¢30
5 hr. agoSell1¢20
5 hr. agoBuy99¢500
5 hr. agoBuy1¢500
5 hr. agoBuy99¢80
5 hr. agoBuy1¢80
5 hr. agoBuy99¢500
5 hr. agoBuy1¢500
5 hr. agoBuy99¢10
5 hr. agoBuy1¢10
6 hr. agoBuy99¢500
6 hr. agoBuy1¢500
6 hr. agoBuy99¢42
6 hr. agoBuy1¢42
6 hr. agoBuy99¢500
6 hr. agoBuy1¢500
6 hr. agoBuy1¢430
6 hr. agoBuy99¢101
6 hr. agoBuy99¢329
7 hr. agoBuy99¢171
7 hr. agoBuy1¢20
7 hr. agoSell99¢101
7 hr. agoBuy1¢50
7 hr. agoBuy1¢91
7 hr. agoBuy99¢81
7 hr. agoBuy99¢10
7 hr. agoBuy1¢1,826

◆ Smart money

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A signal is present in this market.

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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.