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Updated 5 days ago
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?
6 %
chance
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
3 outcomes- December 3130 %
- November 3022 %
- October 316 %
Total volume
$544.6K
24h vol.
$4.4K
1w vol.
$107.6K
1m vol.
$374.4K
Liquidity
$51.4K
Bid / Ask
5¢ / 6¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
6¢
Start date
Aug 28, 2026
End date
Oct 31, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 17 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 17 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 21 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 2 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 6 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 5 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 88¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Sell | 12¢ | 17 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 4 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 89¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 11¢ | 3 |
| 5 days ago | Buy | 12¢ | 8 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.