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Updated 6 days ago
Anthropic reports another AI sandbox escape by October 31?
43 %
chance
Total volume
$2.4K
24h vol.
$328.97
1w vol.
$2.4K
1m vol.
$2.4K
Liquidity
$85.907
Bid / Ask
35¢ / 50¢
Spread 15¢
Last trade
35¢
Start date
Oct 12, 2026
End date
Nov 1, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 8,870 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (19)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 days ago | Buy | 66¢ | 5 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 34¢ | 5 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 66¢ | 15 |
| 6 days ago | Buy | 34¢ | 15 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 40 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 57¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 43¢ | 5 |
| 7 days ago | Sell | 41¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 41¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 36¢ | 63 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 64¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 64¢ | 23 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 64¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 70¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 30¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 25¢ | 20 |
| 7 days ago | Buy | 75¢ | 20 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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