Updated 16 hr. ago

Will Luxembourg vs. Estonia end in a draw?
31 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 7.0 pp over the past week, after touching 39% on Nov 5, 2026.
- Historically, 32% of Polymarket Sports markets priced 15–35% one day before the end resolved YES (4,989 cases). That is more often than their average price of 26% implied — prices in this range have run low.
- Scheduled to end in 1 day (Nov 13, 2026).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Luxembourg vs. Estonia
3 outcomes- Luxembourg43 %
- Draw (Luxembourg vs. Estonia)31 %
- Estonia27 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$35.115
Liquidity
$22.4K
End date
Nov 13, 2026
ends in 1 day
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
- Underlying assetPro+Spot price, the move this market still needs, and how often the asset has managed it before.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
Bid / Ask
30¢ / 31¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
31¢
Start date
Oct 31, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (3)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 days ago | Buy | 31¢ | 32 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 30¢ | 1 |
| 4 days ago | Sell | 30¢ | 1 |
Rules & resolution
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Luxembourg and Estonia, originally scheduled for Friday, November 13, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event): If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this market's outcome was definitively determined under its rules by the listed resolution sources before abandonment, that outcome will stand. Otherwise, the following no-result provisions apply. If the game is canceled, does not start by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, this market will resolve to "Yes". The following abandonment rules apply only when this market's outcome was not already definitively determined under its rules before abandonment. If the game is abandoned, this market will resolve according to the official ruling of the governing body or event organizers on the abandoned game. If a result is awarded by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that determines this market's outcome, this market will resolve based on the awarded result, regardless of the score as played. If no such result is awarded and the result as played at the time of abandonment is declared to stand by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the game as played. If the game is replayed or resumed from the point of abandonment and has an official result by Sunday, November 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the completed result. In any other case, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor names, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences in a team's or player's name will not affect resolution, provided the intended team or player can be clearly and uniquely identified as a participant in the listed fixture or competition. If a listed name has no reasonable connection to any participant, or could reasonably refer to more than one participant such that the intended team or player cannot be determined, this market will resolve as it would if the listed fixture had been canceled entirely; a listed participant who cannot be identified does not count as inactive or absent. The primary resolution source for this market will be official match information from UEFA Nations League (https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/). If the governing body or event organizers have not published final statistics within 2 hours of the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Event:
- Luxembourg vs. Estonia
- Resolution source:
- https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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