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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

Politics
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91 %

chance

▲ +0.1%1h▲ +0.0%24h▼ −0.3%1W
Yes 91¢No 9¢

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$66.1K

24h vol.

$29.79

1w vol.

$924.149

1m vol.

$8.3K

Liquidity

$42.1K

Bid / Ask

90¢ / 91¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

90¢

Start date

Dec 9, 2025

End date

Feb 1, 2027

ends in 3 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 515 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 88.0% resolved YES. Their average price was 90.1%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
86¢$33
86¢$1,030
86¢$20
86¢$20
86¢$269
86¢$270
86¢$40
86¢$26,770
85¢$660
85¢$19
Asks (sell)Size
88¢$53
89¢$60
89¢$80
89¢$20
89¢$53
89¢$473
89¢$114
89¢$431
90¢$338
90¢$190

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 65%Sells 35%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoBuy14¢65
1 mo. agoBuy86¢17
1 mo. agoBuy86¢20
1 mo. agoSell14¢28
1 mo. agoBuy88¢28
1 mo. agoBuy12¢28
1 mo. agoBuy88¢34
1 mo. agoBuy12¢4
1 mo. agoBuy12¢10
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoBuy88¢30
1 mo. agoSell88¢30
1 mo. agoBuy88¢10
1 mo. agoSell88¢10
1 mo. agoBuy88¢43
1 mo. agoBuy12¢3
1 mo. agoSell88¢18
1 mo. agoSell88¢16
1 mo. agoSell86¢6
1 mo. agoBuy13¢20
1 mo. agoBuy87¢20
1 mo. agoBuy87¢71
1 mo. agoBuy14¢71
1 mo. agoBuy85¢23
1 mo. agoSell85¢23
1 mo. agoBuy85¢25
1 mo. agoSell85¢25
1 mo. agoBuy15¢7
1 mo. agoBuy85¢7
1 mo. agoSell85¢1
1 mo. agoBuy85¢1
1 mo. agoSell86¢40
1 mo. agoBuy86¢10
1 mo. agoBuy86¢20
1 mo. agoBuy86¢10
1 mo. agoBuy86¢2
1 mo. agoSell86¢2
1 mo. agoSell14¢39
1 mo. agoSell86¢39
1 mo. agoSell14¢20
1 mo. agoSell86¢20
1 mo. agoBuy86¢50
1 mo. agoBuy14¢39
1 mo. agoSell86¢11
1 mo. agoBuy86¢50
1 mo. agoSell86¢50
1 mo. agoBuy86¢50
1 mo. agoSell86¢18
1 mo. agoSell86¢20
1 mo. agoSell86¢6

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