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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?

Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?

Politics
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9 %

chance

▲ +0.1%1h▼ −0.1%24h▲ +0.1%1W
Yes 9¢No 91¢

Another US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?

2 outcomes

Total volume

$85.3K

24h vol.

$50

1w vol.

$8K

1m vol.

$12.2K

Liquidity

$30.7K

Bid / Ask

9¢ / 10¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

9¢

Start date

Dec 9, 2025

End date

Feb 1, 2027

ends in 3 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 221 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
11¢$109
11¢$20
10¢$20
1¢$53
1¢$61
0¢$35
0¢$143
0¢$381
0¢$1,478
Asks (sell)Size
11¢$85
11¢$1,020
11¢$37
11¢$20
12¢$20
13¢$120
13¢$29
14¢$20
14¢$802
14¢$30

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 55%Sells 45%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell89¢10
1 mo. agoSell11¢10
1 mo. agoSell10¢17
1 mo. agoSell90¢17
1 mo. agoSell10¢40
1 mo. agoSell90¢20
1 mo. agoSell90¢20
1 mo. agoSell12¢576
1 mo. agoBuy12¢313
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoBuy12¢43
1 mo. agoBuy12¢60
1 mo. agoBuy12¢40
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoBuy12¢20
1 mo. agoSell88¢20
1 mo. agoBuy89¢20
1 mo. agoSell89¢20
1 mo. agoBuy89¢20
1 mo. agoBuy11¢17
1 mo. agoSell89¢3
1 mo. agoBuy88¢60
1 mo. agoBuy12¢60
1 mo. agoBuy88¢43
1 mo. agoSell89¢8
1 mo. agoSell88¢35
1 mo. agoBuy88¢20
1 mo. agoSell88¢14
1 mo. agoBuy12¢6
1 mo. agoBuy88¢34
1 mo. agoBuy12¢6
1 mo. agoBuy12¢11
1 mo. agoBuy12¢17
1 mo. agoBuy88¢10
1 mo. agoBuy12¢10
1 mo. agoBuy88¢20
1 mo. agoBuy12¢10
1 mo. agoSell88¢10
1 mo. agoBuy88¢10
1 mo. agoSell88¢10
1 mo. agoBuy88¢3
1 mo. agoSell88¢3
1 mo. agoBuy88¢4
1 mo. agoSell88¢4
1 mo. agoSell13¢3
1 mo. agoSell87¢3
1 mo. agoBuy13¢42
1 mo. agoBuy87¢42

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.