Monthly recap
Prediction market recap — July 2026
The month at a glance, built from the daily recaps: the biggest single-day swings, the markets that kept moving, and where the AI disagreed most.
Biggest moves of the month
The largest 24-hour swing per market, across every day of the month.
1
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?on Jul 23, 2026▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?on Jul 29, 2026▲ +97.3%3Miles Russell: Golf Majors before 2036 — 1+ golf major championship winson Jul 24, 2026▲ +95.0%4
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?on Jul 23, 2026▼ −94.7%5Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?on Jul 23, 2026▲ +94.5%6
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?on Jul 26, 2026▲ +94.3%7Lane Johnson: Retirement — Before the 2026-27 seasonon Jul 24, 2026▲ +94.0%8
Fluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5on Jul 30, 2026▼ −93.5%9
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?on Jul 25, 2026▲ +90.6%10
Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovicon Jul 23, 2026▼ −90.5%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?on Jul 23, 2026▲ +99.5%2Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?on Jul 29, 2026▲ +97.3%3Miles Russell: Golf Majors before 2036 — 1+ golf major championship winson Jul 24, 2026▲ +95.0%4Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?on Jul 23, 2026▼ −94.7%5Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?on Jul 23, 2026▲ +94.5%6Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?on Jul 26, 2026▲ +94.3%7Lane Johnson: Retirement — Before the 2026-27 seasonon Jul 24, 2026▲ +94.0%8Fluminense FC vs. EC Bahia: O/U 0.5on Jul 30, 2026▼ −93.5%9Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?on Jul 25, 2026▲ +90.6%10Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovicon Jul 23, 2026▼ −90.5%Markets that kept moving
Markets that made the daily top movers on more than one day.
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?9 days
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?9 daysSegovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic7 daysEstoril Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tiago Torres6 daysWill Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?6 daysWill the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?4 daysWidest AI-vs-market gaps
The largest gap per market between price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will Liquid Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2?Market 9% · AI 92% · on Jul 30, 2026-83 pp gap
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsMarket 0% · AI 71% · on Jul 26, 2026-71 pp gapCleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati RedsMarket 100% · AI 39% · on Jul 29, 2026+61 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?Market 1% · AI 49% · on Jul 31, 2026-48 pp gapWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July?Market 65% · AI 42% · on Jul 28, 2026+24 pp gap
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Market 10% · AI 31% · on Jul 27, 2026-22 pp gap