Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Jul 23, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?3¢▼ −94.7%3Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?96¢▲ +94.5%4
Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic0¢▼ −90.5%5
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%6Estoril Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tiago Torres0¢▼ −88.4%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?3¢▼ −94.7%3Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?96¢▲ +94.5%4Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic0¢▼ −90.5%5Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%6Estoril Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tiago Torres0¢▼ −88.4%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Market 20%AI 26%-6 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Market 75%AI 81%-6 pp gap
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Market 100%AI 94%+6 pp gap
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Market 6%AI 4%+2 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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