Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Jul 25, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?100¢▲ +90.6%3
Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic0¢▼ −90.5%4
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%5Estoril Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tiago Torres0¢▼ −88.4%6
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?100¢▲ +85.4%
Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?100¢▲ +90.6%3Segovia: Yi Zhou vs Luka Pavlovic0¢▼ −90.5%4Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%5Estoril Open: Alejandro Tabilo vs Tiago Torres0¢▼ −88.4%6Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?100¢▲ +85.4%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Los Angeles Angels vs. San Francisco GiantsMarket 21%AI 71%-51 pp gap
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Market 20%AI 33%-13 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Market 74%AI 78%-5 pp gap
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?Market 6%AI 4%+2 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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