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Updated 30 min. ago

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

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16 %

chance

▲ +1.0%24h▼ −2.0%1W
Yes 16¢No 85¢

Total volume

$74.6M

24h vol.

$62.2K

1w vol.

$1.1M

1m vol.

$7.6M

Liquidity

$430.5K

Bid / Ask

15¢ / 16¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

15¢

Start date

Nov 5, 2025

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
15¢$25,013
14¢$166,946
13¢$245,644
12¢$25,010
11¢$25,976
10¢$37,390
9¢$66,983
8¢$88,068
7¢$33,923
6¢$13,992
Asks (sell)Size
16¢$63,545
17¢$62,468
18¢$36,633
19¢$49,786
20¢$3,758
21¢$724
22¢$1,498
23¢$384
24¢$419
25¢$21,574

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 48%Sells 52%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
33 min. agoSell15¢375
33 min. agoSell85¢359
33 min. agoSell85¢16
1 hr. agoSell84¢3
1 hr. agoBuy84¢3
1 hr. agoSell84¢3
1 hr. agoBuy84¢3
1 hr. agoBuy85¢79
1 hr. agoSell85¢79
1 hr. agoSell84¢1
1 hr. agoBuy84¢1
1 hr. agoSell84¢1
1 hr. agoBuy84¢1
1 hr. agoBuy85¢24
1 hr. agoSell85¢24
2 hr. agoSell84¢0
2 hr. agoBuy84¢0
2 hr. agoSell84¢0
2 hr. agoBuy84¢0
2 hr. agoSell15¢13
2 hr. agoSell85¢13
2 hr. agoBuy16¢7
2 hr. agoBuy84¢7
2 hr. agoBuy16¢6
2 hr. agoBuy84¢6
3 hr. agoSell84¢0
3 hr. agoBuy84¢0
3 hr. agoSell84¢0
3 hr. agoBuy84¢0
3 hr. agoBuy85¢5
3 hr. agoSell85¢5
4 hr. agoSell84¢758
4 hr. agoBuy84¢758
4 hr. agoSell84¢0
4 hr. agoBuy84¢0
4 hr. agoSell84¢0
4 hr. agoBuy84¢0
4 hr. agoBuy85¢2
4 hr. agoSell85¢2
4 hr. agoSell84¢6,866
4 hr. agoBuy84¢1,167
4 hr. agoBuy84¢5,000
4 hr. agoBuy84¢210
4 hr. agoBuy84¢300
4 hr. agoBuy84¢190
4 hr. agoSell84¢7
4 hr. agoBuy84¢7
4 hr. agoSell84¢7
4 hr. agoBuy84¢3
4 hr. agoBuy84¢4

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