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Updated 6 days ago

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Politics
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16 %

chance

▲ +1.0%1h▲ +0.8%24h▲ +0.4%1W
Yes 16¢No 84¢

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

50 outcomes
See all 50 outcomes

Total volume

$28M

24h vol.

$10.2K

1w vol.

$49.9K

1m vol.

$339.1K

Liquidity

$268.2K

Bid / Ask

16¢ / 16¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

16¢

Start date

Jul 11, 2025

End date

Nov 8, 2028

ends in 2 yr.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
14¢$683
14¢$204
14¢$365
14¢$5
13¢$335
13¢$100
13¢$1,870
13¢$406
13¢$5,210
12¢$53
Asks (sell)Size
14¢$2,163
14¢$2,797
14¢$200
15¢$200
15¢$2,375
15¢$200
15¢$300
16¢$615
16¢$1,734
16¢$600

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (50)

Buys 61%Sells 39%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
6 days agoSell13¢624
6 days agoBuy13¢473
6 days agoSell87¢76
6 days agoBuy14¢6
6 days agoBuy14¢50
6 days agoBuy14¢9
6 days agoBuy14¢10
6 days agoBuy14¢7
6 days agoSell14¢7
6 days agoSell86¢36
6 days agoSell14¢36
6 days agoSell14¢200
6 days agoBuy14¢126
6 days agoBuy14¢50
6 days agoBuy14¢24
6 days agoBuy85¢5,015
6 days agoBuy14¢549
6 days agoBuy14¢440
6 days agoSell86¢549
6 days agoBuy15¢220
6 days agoBuy15¢220
6 days agoBuy15¢137
6 days agoBuy15¢200
6 days agoBuy15¢200
6 days agoBuy15¢100
6 days agoBuy15¢100
6 days agoBuy15¢24
6 days agoBuy15¢24
6 days agoBuy15¢2,253
6 days agoSell14¢325
6 days agoBuy14¢325
6 days agoSell15¢11,507
6 days agoBuy15¢571
6 days agoBuy15¢934
6 days agoBuy15¢5,015
6 days agoBuy15¢200
6 days agoBuy15¢600
6 days agoBuy15¢1,200
6 days agoBuy15¢59
6 days agoBuy15¢17
6 days agoBuy15¢582
6 days agoBuy15¢200
6 days agoBuy15¢325
6 days agoSell85¢38
6 days agoBuy15¢11
6 days agoBuy15¢105
6 days agoBuy15¢174
6 days agoBuy15¢5
6 days agoBuy15¢234
6 days agoSell85¢93

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Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.