Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 5, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?8¢▼ −90.5%2Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?95¢▲ +75.5%3
South Korea vs. Nigeria91¢▲ +71.6%4
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +64.5%5
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?71¢▲ +61.5%6
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?12¢▼ −58.0%
South Korea vs. Nigeria91¢▲ +71.6%4Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +64.5%5Israel closes its airspace by September 30?71¢▲ +61.5%6Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?12¢▼ −58.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 86%AI 31%+55 pp gap
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Market 50%AI 92%-43 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 65%AI 35%+30 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 26%AI 46%-20 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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