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Updated 1 day ago

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

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14 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −4.0%1W
Yes 14¢No 87¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

15 outcomes

Total volume

$2.9M

24h vol.

$5.1K

1w vol.

$98K

1m vol.

$229K

Liquidity

$160.1K

Bid / Ask

13¢ / 14¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

14¢

Start date

May 13, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
12¢$12,773
11¢$36,860
10¢$224,378
9¢$119,336
8¢$134,466
7¢$34,098
6¢$71,354
5¢$115,483
4¢$20,462
3¢$314,952
Asks (sell)Size
13¢$538
14¢$15,617
15¢$7,543
16¢$3,042
17¢$10,659
18¢$2,620
19¢$196
20¢$741
21¢$1,000
22¢$1,500

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 67%Sells 33%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 day agoSell12¢238
1 day agoBuy12¢106
1 day agoSell88¢132
1 day agoBuy88¢1
1 day agoSell88¢1
1 day agoBuy88¢67
1 day agoSell88¢67
1 day agoBuy87¢9
1 day agoBuy13¢9
1 day agoBuy87¢1,298
1 day agoSell87¢747
1 day agoBuy13¢73
1 day agoSell87¢5
1 day agoBuy13¢210
1 day agoSell87¢100
1 day agoBuy13¢18
1 day agoSell87¢18
1 day agoSell87¢122
1 day agoBuy13¢5
1 day agoBuy87¢115
1 day agoBuy13¢115
2 days agoSell86¢1
2 days agoBuy86¢1
2 days agoBuy87¢1
2 days agoBuy13¢1
2 days agoBuy14¢430
2 days agoBuy86¢430
2 days agoBuy14¢300
2 days agoBuy86¢300
2 days agoBuy87¢12
2 days agoSell87¢12
2 days agoBuy14¢36
2 days agoBuy86¢36
2 days agoSell86¢288
2 days agoBuy86¢288
2 days agoSell13¢10
2 days agoSell87¢10
2 days agoSell87¢14
2 days agoBuy87¢14
2 days agoSell13¢3
2 days agoSell87¢3
2 days agoSell88¢32
2 days agoSell12¢32
2 days agoSell12¢48
2 days agoBuy12¢48
2 days agoSell12¢67
2 days agoBuy12¢63
2 days agoSell88¢4
2 days agoSell12¢1
2 days agoSell88¢1

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