Prediction market recap — Sep 7, 2026

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of August 31?92¢▲ +91.2%2

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Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?8¢▼ −90.5%3Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?78¢▲ +64.3%4Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?84¢▲ +62.0%5

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Will Rob Reiner – “The Bear” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a comedy series?100¢▲ +60.5%6

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Will Betty Gilpin – “Widow’s Bay” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actress in a comedy series?100¢▲ +58.1%

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?Market 24%AI 77%-53 pp gapWill Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 58%AI 35%+23 pp gapRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Market 13%AI 34%-21 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 26%AI 46%-20 pp gap

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?35¢Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?85¢

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Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?10¢Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?59¢