Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 8, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Will "Turning Point: Generation 9/11" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?98¢▲ +70.4%2
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athletics0¢▼ −64.5%3
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%4Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?7¢▼ −55.1%5
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?1¢▼ −54.1%6
Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?11¢▼ −54.0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athletics0¢▼ −64.5%3Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%4Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?7¢▼ −55.1%5Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?1¢▼ −54.1%6Will Jordan Bardella announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?11¢▼ −54.0%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?Market 12%AI 77%-65 pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Market 11%AI 34%-23 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 26%AI 46%-20 pp gap
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs magic (BO3) - FISSURE PLAYGROUND Group BMarket 93%AI 74%+19 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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