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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Jordan Bardella be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
8 %
chance
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
46 outcomes- Jean-Luc Mélenchon94 %
- Marine Le Pen92 %
- Nathalie Arthaud87 %
- Fabien Roussel85 %
- Édouard Philippe85 %
- Raphaël Glucksmann84 %
- Éric Zemmour81 %
- David Lisnard78 %
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan69 %
- Bruno Retailleau58 %
- Dominique de Villepin31 %
- Marine Tondelier31 %
- François Hollande28 %
- Gabriel Attal27 %
- François Ruffin20 %
- Sarah Knafo18 %
- François Asselineau12 %
- Delphine Batho10 %
- Jordan Bardella8 %
- Xavier Bertrand7 %
- Élisabeth Borne7 %
- Juan Branco7 %
- Michel Barnier6 %
- Yaël Braun-Pivet6 %
- Jean-Michel Fauvergue6 %
- Olivier Faure6 %
- Teddy Riner6 %
- Bernard Cazeneuve6 %
- Jean Castex5 %
- Carole Delga5 %
- Sébastien Lecornu5 %
- François Bayrou5 %
- Matthieu Pigasse5 %
- Manuel Bompard5 %
- Karim Bouamrane5 %
- Philippe de Villiers5 %
- Michel-Edouard Leclerc5 %
- Mathilde Panot4 %
- Jérôme Guedj4 %
- Manuel Valls4 %
- Valérie Pécresse4 %
- Gérald Darmanin4 %
- Bally Bagayoko3 %
- Laurent Wauquiez3 %
- Ségolène Royal3 %
- Clémentine Autain3 %
Total volume
$32.8K
24h vol.
$50
1w vol.
$306.6
1m vol.
$2.4K
Liquidity
$18.2K
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 8¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
8¢
Start date
Apr 22, 2026
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 90¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 10¢ | 1 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 2,253 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 2,253 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 112 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 89¢ | 1,000 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 1,000 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 51 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 51 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 68 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 43 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 24 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 11¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 88¢ | 1,950 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 1,865 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 45 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 13¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 89¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 34 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 4 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 12¢ | 100 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 74 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 12¢ | 26 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 90 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 52 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 87¢ | 38 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 87¢ | 120 |
◆ Smart money
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Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.