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Daily recap

Prediction market recap — Sep 23, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1M25 Yinchuan: Matthew Shearer vs Shanghui LiM25 Yinchuan: Matthew Shearer vs Shanghui Li1¢▼ −91.0%2Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?100¢▲ +85.9%3US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?100¢▲ +85.2%4Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?0¢▼ −84.6%5Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%6Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?+79 pp gapUS x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?+61 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?-58 pp gap2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House-55 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?73¢Spread: Packers (-6.5)Spread: Packers (-6.5)46¢US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?33¢US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?8¢

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