CPI inflation report
A monthly number from a statistical agency, published on a known date — and one of the few events where the market is pricing a measurement rather than a decision.
- How often
- Monthly, on a schedule published a year in advance by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Who decides, and on what
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics. Markets resolve on the published figure, and revisions after the fact usually do not reopen a settled market — check the rules.
Open markets on CPI inflation report
Live prediction markets whose question turns on this event. Prices update with the rest of the site.
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
Volume $339.7K
9 %
▲ +0.0%
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?
Volume $227.6K
14 %
▼ −0.5%
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?
Volume $69.8K
4 %
▲ +0.0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?
Volume $60.2K
3 %
▲ +0.1%
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
Volume $58.2K
68 %
▼ −1.6%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?
Volume $42.1K
3 %
▲ +0.0%
How accurate have these markets been?
Across 62 resolved markets of this kind, the price seven days before resolution scored a Brier of 0.113, against 0.183 for simply forecasting the base rate every time — so the market added information. It was systematically too pessimistic.
| The market said | It happened | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 0–20 % | 5 % | 38 |
| 20–40 % | too few | 12 |
| 40–60 % | too few | 11 |
| 60–80 % | too few | 1 |
| 80–100 % | too few | 0 |
Measured on our own corpus of resolved markets, using the price seven days before resolution. A band shows a rate only from 30 cases — fewer than that rewards luck. A historical frequency is not a probability for the next one.
The print, not the phenomenon
A CPI market resolves on what a government agency publishes on a specific morning, to a specific number of decimal places. That is a narrower thing than inflation, and the gap between the two is where these markets are won and lost.
Rounding is the classic trap. A market written on "above 3.0 %" and a print of 2.95 % that rounds to 3.0 in the headline can resolve differently depending on whether the rules name the rounded or the unrounded figure. Read which one before taking a position.
Revisions are a rules question, not a data question
Statistical agencies revise. Whether a revision affects a settled market depends entirely on the contract's wording — most resolve on the first print and stay resolved. That is a defensible choice and it means a market can be settled on a number that is later known to be wrong.
If you are comparing venues on the same release, this is one of the places their rules genuinely differ.
Common questions
How accurate are prediction markets on CPI?
The figures on this page come from our corpus of resolved markets rather than from an assertion. Below the publication threshold the page shows the sample size instead of a hit rate.
When is the next CPI release?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its release calendar a year ahead. The live markets below carry the date each one resolves on.
Do revisions change how a market settles?
Usually not — most contracts resolve on the first published print and stay resolved. It is a rules question rather than a data question, and it differs between venues.