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Updated 2 wk. ago

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
9 %
chance
How high will inflation get in 2026?
5 outcomesTotal volume
$339.7K
24h vol.
$200
1w vol.
$213.99
1m vol.
$8.8K
Liquidity
$18.4K
Bid / Ask
8¢ / 9¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
Nov 13, 2025
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 5 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 131 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 131 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 250 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 250 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 7¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 2,349 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 250 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 50 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 103 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 1,796 |
| 2 wk. ago | Buy | 93¢ | 100 |
| 2 wk. ago | Sell | 93¢ | 100 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 122 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 122 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 156 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 156 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 51 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 51 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 600 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 600 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 50 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 50 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 15 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 15 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 32 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 32 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 9¢ | 111 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 111 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 300 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 300 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 8¢ | 340 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 340 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 91¢ | 1 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 91¢ | 1 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 92¢ | 1 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 8¢ | 1 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
This market on Kalshi
The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.