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Updated 1 mo. ago

Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Will Justin Gaethje be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

SportssportsUFCufcmma
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87 %

chance

▲ +0.2%24h▼ −2.6%1W
Yes 87¢No 13¢

Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?

7 outcomes
See all 7 outcomes

Total volume

$54.7K

24h vol.

$237.618

1w vol.

$1.8K

1m vol.

$18.9K

Liquidity

$2.8K

Bid / Ask

86¢ / 89¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

88¢

Start date

Jan 4, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 364 resolved Polymarket Sports markets priced 85–95% seven days before resolution, 85.4% resolved YES. That is 4.4 points less often than their average price of 89.8% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
91¢$36
91¢$1
90¢$40
90¢$438
90¢$80
90¢$22
90¢$40
90¢$382
90¢$20
89¢$50
Asks (sell)Size
91¢$59
91¢$42
91¢$338
91¢$20
92¢$20
92¢$332
92¢$20
93¢$101
94¢$100
94¢$779

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 65%Sells 35%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 mo. agoSell9¢100
1 mo. agoBuy9¢20
1 mo. agoBuy9¢80
1 mo. agoSell91¢21
1 mo. agoBuy91¢21
1 mo. agoBuy91¢22
1 mo. agoSell91¢22
1 mo. agoSell9¢8
1 mo. agoSell91¢8
1 mo. agoBuy9¢11
1 mo. agoSell9¢11
1 mo. agoSell91¢43
1 mo. agoSell9¢31
1 mo. agoBuy91¢12
1 mo. agoBuy9¢10
1 mo. agoBuy91¢10
1 mo. agoBuy91¢27
1 mo. agoSell91¢1
1 mo. agoSell91¢22
1 mo. agoSell91¢4
1 mo. agoBuy91¢22
1 mo. agoSell91¢22
1 mo. agoBuy91¢11
1 mo. agoSell91¢11
1 mo. agoSell91¢20
1 mo. agoSell10¢20
1 mo. agoBuy9¢102
1 mo. agoSell9¢11
1 mo. agoBuy91¢20
1 mo. agoBuy91¢20
1 mo. agoBuy91¢22
1 mo. agoBuy91¢30
1 mo. agoBuy9¢144
1 mo. agoBuy91¢14
1 mo. agoBuy91¢44
1 mo. agoBuy91¢44
1 mo. agoBuy91¢25
1 mo. agoSell9¢16
1 mo. agoBuy92¢20
1 mo. agoSell92¢20
1 mo. agoBuy91¢82
1 mo. agoSell91¢22
1 mo. agoBuy9¢20
1 mo. agoSell91¢20
1 mo. agoBuy9¢20
1 mo. agoSell91¢40
1 mo. agoBuy91¢19
1 mo. agoBuy91¢21
1 mo. agoBuy91¢1
1 mo. agoSell91¢1

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A signal is present in this market.

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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

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