Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

From the daily AI research

The evidence supports a high-80s YES probability: current Polymarket pricing is 87.5%, while recent futures and reporting imply roughly 84%-85% for a hold.[8][9] The September hike, majority projections for another 2026 hike, persistent inflation, and the chair's refusal to precommit leave a material NO tail risk.[5][9] No sourced development from the last seven days justifies moving materially away from the market price, so the estimate remains 87.5%; the supplied historical 85%-95% calibration, at 87.9% YES, provides a consistent check rather than an independent forecast. Resolution is comparatively clear on the decision date and source, but the rounding rule, UTC end time, and missing procedures for postponement or cancellation create medium ambiguity.

Two of the key facts

• The Federal Reserve's official calendar schedules the October 2026 FOMC meeting for October 27-28, with the October 28 meeting and press conference listed on the Board calendar. [1][2]
• Recent reporting says the Fed raised the upper bound to 4.00% in September 2026, and that all 19 policymakers supported the move while a majority projected another hike before year-end. [5]