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Updated 11 min. ago

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Economy
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78 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +2.0%24h▲ +2.0%1W
Yes 78¢No 22¢

Fed Decision in December?

5 outcomes
See all 5 outcomes

Total volume

$923.1K

24h vol.

$22.6K

1w vol.

$147.3K

1m vol.

$625.9K

Liquidity

$185.2K

Bid / Ask

77¢ / 78¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

78¢

Start date

Jul 30, 2026

End date

Dec 9, 2026

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 1,758 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before resolution, 68.5% resolved YES. That is 4.5 points less often than their average price of 73.1% implied — prices in this range have tended to run high.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
77¢$3,600
76¢$10,649
75¢$57,576
74¢$21,942
73¢$11,093
72¢$1,000
70¢$11,010
69¢$198
68¢$23
67¢$8
Asks (sell)Size
78¢$8,915
79¢$14,022
80¢$99,848
81¢$27,008
82¢$5,127
83¢$5,045
84¢$5,020
85¢$5,780
86¢$5,020
87¢$2,102

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 84%Sells 16%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 hr. agoBuy23¢740
1 hr. agoBuy77¢740
1 hr. agoBuy23¢160
1 hr. agoBuy77¢160
1 hr. agoSell22¢100
1 hr. agoBuy22¢66
1 hr. agoSell78¢34
1 hr. agoBuy78¢8
1 hr. agoSell78¢8
1 hr. agoBuy77¢18,803
1 hr. agoBuy23¢24
1 hr. agoBuy23¢320
1 hr. agoBuy23¢50
1 hr. agoBuy23¢300
1 hr. agoSell77¢4,593
1 hr. agoBuy23¢100
1 hr. agoBuy23¢6,777
1 hr. agoBuy23¢5,554
1 hr. agoSell77¢770
1 hr. agoSell77¢315
1 hr. agoBuy78¢49
1 hr. agoSell78¢49
1 hr. agoBuy78¢319
1 hr. agoSell78¢319
3 hr. agoSell76¢100
3 hr. agoSell24¢100
6 hr. agoBuy77¢5
6 hr. agoSell77¢5
6 hr. agoBuy77¢100
6 hr. agoSell77¢100
7 hr. agoBuy77¢1
7 hr. agoSell77¢1
7 hr. agoBuy76¢1,232
7 hr. agoBuy24¢50
7 hr. agoBuy24¢360
7 hr. agoBuy24¢50
7 hr. agoSell76¢223
7 hr. agoSell76¢100
7 hr. agoSell76¢180
7 hr. agoBuy24¢270
7 hr. agoBuy77¢50
7 hr. agoSell77¢50
7 hr. agoBuy77¢365
7 hr. agoSell77¢365
8 hr. agoBuy25¢393
8 hr. agoBuy75¢393
10 hr. agoBuy76¢92
10 hr. agoBuy24¢92
10 hr. agoBuy76¢66
10 hr. agoBuy24¢66

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