Fed interest rate decision
Eight scheduled decisions a year, each one a date on which a committee votes and a number changes — or does not.
- How often
- Eight scheduled FOMC meetings a year, roughly every six weeks.
- Who decides, and on what
- The Federal Open Market Committee, announced in a statement at the end of the meeting. Markets resolve on the announced target range.
Open markets on Fed interest rate decision
Live prediction markets whose question turns on this event. Prices update with the rest of the site.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Volume $13.6M
88 %
▲ +1.0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Volume $10.3M
13 %
▼ −1.0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Volume $8.9M
97 %
▲ +0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Volume $8.8M
0 %
▼ −0.1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Volume $7.7M
0 %
▲ +0.0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Volume $6.5M
0 %
▲ +0.0%
How accurate have these markets been?
Across 37 resolved markets of this kind, the price seven days before resolution scored a Brier of 0.093, against 0.235 for simply forecasting the base rate every time — so the market added information. It was systematically too pessimistic.
| The market said | It happened | Cases |
|---|---|---|
| 0–20 % | too few | 21 |
| 20–40 % | too few | 2 |
| 40–60 % | too few | 1 |
| 60–80 % | too few | 4 |
| 80–100 % | too few | 9 |
Measured on our own corpus of resolved markets, using the price seven days before resolution. A band shows a rate only from 30 cases — fewer than that rewards luck. A historical frequency is not a probability for the next one.
What is actually being decided
The FOMC sets a target range for the federal funds rate. Eight times a year it meets and either moves that range or leaves it. The decision is announced in a statement, and prediction markets resolve on that announced range rather than on any commentary around it.
That precision matters more than it sounds. A market asking whether the Fed will cut is asking about the target range, not about whether policy felt looser. Read the resolution text before assuming the two are the same question.
Why these markets move before the meeting, not at it
By the morning of a decision, the outcome is usually close to settled in the price — not because anyone has inside information, but because the committee communicates deliberately and the data between meetings is public. Most of the movement happens on inflation and employment releases in the weeks before.
The consequence for anyone watching: the interesting period is between meetings, not on the day. A price that sits at 95 % the evening before has already told you everything it is going to.
Common questions
How accurate are prediction markets on Fed decisions?
The hit rate on this page is measured from our own corpus of resolved markets rather than asserted. Where the sample is too small to publish, the page says so instead of showing a number.
When is the next Fed decision?
The FOMC meets eight times a year on a schedule published in advance by the Federal Reserve. The live markets below carry the specific dates they resolve on.
What do these markets resolve on?
The announced target range for the federal funds rate, as published in the FOMC statement. Not the tone of the statement, and not subsequent commentary.