Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

From the daily AI research

The decisive questions are whether the FOMC raises the upper bound on October 28, whether the move falls into the rules' 25 bps bracket, and whether any postponement triggers the no-change fallback. Hotter September inflation and hawkish year-end guidance provide a credible YES case, but official scheduling, election timing, divided economist views, and the market's sharp recent repricing favor NO. I found no sourced development that clearly justifies deviating from the supplied 15.5% market price, so the estimate remains 15.5%; the historical 15%-35% calibration, with 20.1% resolving YES, is a modest check against raising the estimate on narrative alone. No controversy about this exact market was identified in the available search results.

Two of the key facts

• The official Federal Reserve calendar schedules the October 2026 FOMC meeting for October 27-28, with the policy statement and decision on October 28. [1][2]
• Recent reporting says hotter-than-expected September inflation materially increased market expectations for an October 25 bps hike, but estimates remained below 50% and economists were split between an October hike and a December move. [6][8][10]