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Updated 1 mo. ago

Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?
33 %
chance
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
3 outcomes- December 3133 %
- November 3022 %
- October 318 %
Total volume
$366.8K
24h vol.
$1.9K
1w vol.
$21.9K
1m vol.
$80.1K
Liquidity
$52.5K
Bid / Ask
32¢ / 33¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
32¢
Start date
Jun 18, 2026
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 74¢ | 30 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 26¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 74¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 26¢ | 63 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 25¢ | 120 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 133 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 76¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 25¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 90 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 69 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 75¢ | 69 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 2 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 73¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 28¢ | 31 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 29 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 74¢ | 962 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 6 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 73¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 50 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 337 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 270 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 26¢ | 39 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 26¢ | 40 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 74¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 80 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 10 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 25¢ | 457 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 20 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 75¢ | 191 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 25¢ | 246 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 84 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 76 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 24¢ | 21 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 8 |
| 1 mo. ago | Sell | 24¢ | 13 |
| 1 mo. ago | Buy | 23¢ | 10 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
Related markets
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