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Updated 2 days ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

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18 %

chance

▲ +0.5%1h▲ +0.0%24h▲ +1.0%1W
Yes 18¢No 83¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

3 outcomes

Total volume

$1.8M

24h vol.

$1.9K

1w vol.

$177.6K

1m vol.

$898.9K

Liquidity

$155.8K

Bid / Ask

17¢ / 18¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

17¢

Start date

Jul 9, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
17¢$618
16¢$13,070
15¢$6,535
14¢$5,053
13¢$30,006
12¢$51,301
11¢$34,869
10¢$671
9¢$360
8¢$10
Asks (sell)Size
18¢$100
19¢$14,681
20¢$6,861
21¢$30,797
22¢$548
23¢$10,125
24¢$30,132
25¢$1,200
26¢$6,767
27¢$30,007

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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Recent trades (50)

Buys 49%Sells 51%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 days agoBuy83¢2
2 days agoSell83¢2
2 days agoSell17¢1
2 days agoSell83¢1
2 days agoSell82¢46
2 days agoBuy82¢46
2 days agoBuy17¢572
2 days agoBuy82¢46
2 days agoBuy82¢202
2 days agoBuy82¢20
2 days agoSell18¢11
2 days agoSell17¢293
2 days agoBuy17¢20
2 days agoSell17¢20
2 days agoBuy83¢200
2 days agoSell83¢100
2 days agoBuy17¢100
2 days agoSell16¢2,779
2 days agoSell84¢2,034
2 days agoBuy17¢176
2 days agoBuy17¢312
2 days agoBuy17¢11
2 days agoBuy17¢146
2 days agoSell83¢100
2 days agoBuy84¢176
2 days agoSell84¢176
2 days agoBuy19¢3,315
2 days agoSell19¢905
2 days agoBuy81¢10
2 days agoBuy81¢2,400
2 days agoBuy18¢20
2 days agoSell18¢20
2 days agoBuy18¢1,787
2 days agoBuy82¢202
2 days agoSell18¢7
2 days agoSell18¢10
2 days agoSell18¢1,568
2 days agoBuy17¢108
2 days agoBuy83¢108
2 days agoSell83¢618
2 days agoSell17¢98
2 days agoSell17¢500
2 days agoSell17¢20
2 days agoSell16¢586
2 days agoSell84¢586
2 days agoBuy84¢4
2 days agoSell84¢4
2 days agoSell16¢113
2 days agoSell84¢13
2 days agoBuy16¢100

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