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Updated 7 hr. ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

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3 %

chance

▼ −1.3%24h▼ −3.7%1W
Yes 3¢No 97¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

3 outcomes

Total volume

$1.4M

24h vol.

$20.8K

1w vol.

$203K

1m vol.

$960.1K

Liquidity

$123.3K

Bid / Ask

3¢ / 3¢

Spread 0¢

Last trade

3¢

Start date

Aug 21, 2026

End date

Nov 1, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 0¢
Bids (buy)Size
3¢$376
2¢$554
2¢$743
2¢$15,200
2¢$68
1¢$1,340
1¢$1,217
1¢$2,659
1¢$32,657
1¢$4,777
Asks (sell)Size
3¢$8,841
3¢$20
3¢$97
3¢$75
3¢$1,761
4¢$4,219
4¢$31
4¢$143
4¢$101
4¢$26

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

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uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 55%Sells 45%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
16 hr. agoSell3¢300
16 hr. agoBuy3¢300
20 hr. agoSell3¢983
20 hr. agoBuy3¢983
20 hr. agoBuy97¢17
20 hr. agoBuy3¢17
21 hr. agoSell3¢1,000
21 hr. agoBuy3¢388
21 hr. agoBuy3¢97
21 hr. agoBuy3¢32
21 hr. agoBuy3¢299
21 hr. agoBuy4¢50
21 hr. agoBuy4¢114
21 hr. agoBuy4¢20
22 hr. agoSell4¢0
22 hr. agoBuy4¢0
22 hr. agoSell4¢101
22 hr. agoSell96¢101
23 hr. agoBuy4¢239
23 hr. agoBuy96¢91
23 hr. agoSell4¢118
23 hr. agoSell4¢20
23 hr. agoSell4¢10
23 hr. agoSell4¢109
23 hr. agoSell96¢104
23 hr. agoBuy4¢5
23 hr. agoBuy97¢1,000
23 hr. agoBuy3¢355
23 hr. agoBuy3¢75
23 hr. agoBuy3¢31
23 hr. agoBuy3¢29
23 hr. agoBuy3¢88
23 hr. agoSell97¢262
23 hr. agoSell96¢104
23 hr. agoBuy4¢30
23 hr. agoBuy4¢20
23 hr. agoBuy4¢5
1 day agoBuy5¢100
1 day agoBuy95¢1
1 day agoSell5¢99
1 day agoSell95¢550
1 day agoBuy95¢288
1 day agoBuy95¢262
1 day agoSell96¢98
1 day agoBuy96¢50
1 day agoBuy96¢8
1 day agoBuy96¢40
1 day agoSell4¢110
1 day agoSell96¢6
1 day agoSell96¢104

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