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Updated 1 day ago

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by November 30?

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11 %

chance

▲ +0.5%24h
Yes 11¢No 89¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

3 outcomes

Total volume

$59.3K

24h vol.

$1.3K

1w vol.

$59.3K

1m vol.

$59.3K

Liquidity

$112.1K

Bid / Ask

10¢ / 12¢

Spread 2¢

Last trade

12¢

Start date

Oct 13, 2026

End date

Dec 1, 2026

ends in 1 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
10¢$1,297
9¢$820
8¢$25,251
7¢$10,000
6¢$2,266
5¢$13,170
4¢$9,406
3¢$5,942
2¢$17,998
1¢$31,573
Asks (sell)Size
11¢$100
12¢$1,323
13¢$27,745
14¢$116
15¢$8,856
16¢$36,250
17¢$117
18¢$7,222
19¢$30,100
20¢$125

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 62%Sells 38%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 day agoBuy90¢6
1 day agoBuy10¢6
1 day agoBuy90¢6
1 day agoBuy10¢6
1 day agoBuy90¢4
1 day agoBuy10¢4
1 day agoBuy90¢5
1 day agoBuy10¢5
1 day agoBuy11¢24
1 day agoBuy89¢24
1 day agoBuy90¢2
1 day agoBuy10¢2
1 day agoBuy11¢10
1 day agoBuy89¢10
2 days agoBuy10¢901
2 days agoSell10¢560
2 days agoSell10¢21
2 days agoSell10¢120
2 days agoSell10¢200
2 days agoBuy10¢300
2 days agoSell10¢300
2 days agoSell8¢4
2 days agoSell92¢4
2 days agoSell7¢13,693
2 days agoBuy6¢5,000
2 days agoBuy7¢560
2 days agoBuy7¢5,000
2 days agoBuy8¢500
2 days agoBuy8¢21
2 days agoBuy9¢500
2 days agoSell91¢1,721
2 days agoBuy11¢120
2 days agoSell89¢103
2 days agoSell89¢20
2 days agoSell89¢100
2 days agoSell89¢49
2 days agoBuy89¢500
2 days agoSell89¢500
3 days agoBuy89¢11
3 days agoSell89¢11
3 days agoBuy89¢100
3 days agoSell89¢100
3 days agoSell87¢100
3 days agoBuy87¢78
3 days agoBuy89¢22
3 days agoBuy11¢13,697
3 days agoBuy87¢2,414
3 days agoSell13¢20
3 days agoSell12¢800
3 days agoBuy88¢400

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