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Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?

Politics
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9 %

chance

▼ −0.1%1h▲ +7.0%24h▲ +2.2%1W
Yes 9¢No 91¢

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?

3 outcomes
See all 3 outcomes

Total volume

$464.9K

24h vol.

$65.4K

1w vol.

$292.7K

1m vol.

$466.6K

Liquidity

$80.3K

Bid / Ask

8¢ / 9¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

9¢

Start date

Oct 11, 2026

End date

Nov 4, 2026

ends in 2 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 222 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before resolution, 10.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 9.5%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
8¢$200
8¢$30
8¢$154
8¢$1,246
8¢$1,127
8¢$9,880
8¢$1,856
7¢$5,291
7¢$4,000
7¢$1,117
Asks (sell)Size
9¢$400
9¢$72
9¢$7,939
9¢$1,365
10¢$409
10¢$938
10¢$3,317
10¢$295
11¢$2,333
11¢$2,377

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 63%Sells 37%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
42 min. agoBuy9¢201
42 min. agoSell9¢155
42 min. agoSell9¢46
2 hr. agoSell8¢46
2 hr. agoBuy8¢46
2 hr. agoSell8¢167
2 hr. agoBuy8¢167
2 hr. agoBuy10¢81
2 hr. agoSell10¢43
2 hr. agoSell10¢39
2 hr. agoSell8¢0
2 hr. agoBuy8¢0
2 hr. agoBuy9¢204
2 hr. agoSell10¢174
2 hr. agoSell9¢30
2 hr. agoBuy93¢200
2 hr. agoBuy8¢174
2 hr. agoBuy8¢26
2 hr. agoSell9¢480
2 hr. agoBuy8¢200
2 hr. agoBuy9¢200
2 hr. agoBuy9¢50
2 hr. agoBuy9¢30
2 hr. agoSell6¢39
2 hr. agoBuy6¢39
2 hr. agoBuy19¢104
2 hr. agoBuy81¢83
2 hr. agoSell19¢21
2 hr. agoBuy19¢104
2 hr. agoSell19¢4
2 hr. agoBuy81¢100
2 hr. agoSell6¢0
2 hr. agoBuy6¢0
2 hr. agoBuy13¢179
2 hr. agoBuy87¢129
2 hr. agoSell12¢20
2 hr. agoSell12¢30
2 hr. agoBuy9¢39
2 hr. agoSell9¢39
2 hr. agoBuy9¢963
2 hr. agoSell9¢27
2 hr. agoBuy91¢26
2 hr. agoBuy91¢200
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢100
2 hr. agoSell9¢110

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