Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23? odds
Live implied probabilities across 3 outcomes · $1.8M traded · updated 8 hr. ago
Resolves Nov 4, 2026
No Hormuz Agreement leads at 96 % · biggest 24h move: No Hormuz Agreement +0.4 pp
Market Guy's AI has analysed 1 of 3 outcomes — 0 disagree with the market.
See the AI's numberFrequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite in Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23??
- No Hormuz Agreement is the current favourite at 96 %, ahead of 2 other outcomes. That number is the market's implied probability right now, and it moves as people trade.
- What do these odds actually mean?
- Each percentage is the market's implied probability — the price of a contract that pays out $1 if that outcome happens. An outcome trading at 30 % means the market thinks it happens roughly three times in ten. Across a field like this the percentages add up to about 100 %, because exactly one outcome can win.
- How often do these odds update?
- Prices refresh every 15 minutes from Polymarket. The 24-hour column shows how far each outcome has moved in percentage points since yesterday.
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