Skip to content

← Politics odds

Updated 2 wk. ago

Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?

Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?

PoliticsCulture

14 %

chance

▼ −1.5%24h▼ −7.0%1W
Yes 14¢No 87¢
Watch this market

Market brief

  • Down 7.0 pp over the past week (−1.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 46% on Oct 22, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 21 buys, 29 sells; the largest was $1.88K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

What's your number?

Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.

50%
Saved in this browser only. No account needed.

Result by email

Find out how it ends

One email when this market resolves. No account needed.

We send a confirmation link first. After the result email, we delete your address. Privacy

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

Request analysisPart of every plan · 7 days for $3

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$163.3K

24h vol.

$3.1K

Liquidity

$24.7K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

Only what exists for this market right now.

  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
  • Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
See plans · 7 days for $3
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$6.7K

1m vol.

$80.9K

Bid / Ask

13¢ / 14¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

14¢

Start date

Oct 12, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 2¢
Bids (buy)Size
27¢$30
26¢$5,581
25¢$5,699
24¢$5,203
23¢$61
22¢$5
20¢$5
18¢$80
16¢$128
15¢$6,755
Asks (sell)Size
29¢$35
30¢$3,074
31¢$5,076
32¢$955
33¢$222
34¢$1,317
35¢$824
36¢$60
38¢$10
39¢$473

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 20%Sells 80%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 wk. agoBuy30¢221
2 wk. agoBuy29¢5
2 wk. agoSell28¢5
2 wk. agoBuy28¢606
2 wk. agoSell27¢99
2 wk. agoSell29¢2,222
2 wk. agoSell30¢21
2 wk. agoSell29¢30
2 wk. agoSell29¢152
2 wk. agoSell31¢1,950
2 wk. agoSell32¢17
2 wk. agoBuy34¢20
2 wk. agoBuy33¢10
2 wk. agoBuy32¢5
2 wk. agoBuy32¢63
2 wk. agoBuy32¢341
2 wk. agoSell32¢52
2 wk. agoSell32¢450
2 wk. agoSell32¢1,270
2 wk. agoBuy33¢501
2 wk. agoSell32¢470
2 wk. agoSell32¢51
2 wk. agoSell32¢70
2 wk. agoSell33¢529
2 wk. agoBuy31¢197
2 wk. agoSell30¢71
2 wk. agoBuy31¢3
2 wk. agoSell31¢10
2 wk. agoBuy33¢15
2 wk. agoSell30¢11
2 wk. agoSell30¢20
2 wk. agoSell31¢30
2 wk. agoSell31¢30
2 wk. agoSell30¢0
2 wk. agoSell31¢70
2 wk. agoSell30¢11
2 wk. agoSell33¢11
2 wk. agoSell34¢82
2 wk. agoSell35¢2,905
2 wk. agoBuy38¢80
2 wk. agoBuy37¢40
2 wk. agoBuy35¢56
2 wk. agoBuy33¢85
2 wk. agoBuy33¢10
2 wk. agoBuy32¢7
2 wk. agoBuy32¢539
2 wk. agoBuy32¢50
2 wk. agoBuy32¢22
2 wk. agoSell32¢234
2 wk. agoSell33¢300
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Ilhan Omar between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Event:
Ilhan Omar federally charged by...?

Related markets

Open Politics markets from other events — closest to this one first.

Keep exploring

Moving today

Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.

Daily Forecast ChallengeThree real markets, one guess each — then see how you compare to the crowd and the AI.