Updated 5 days ago

Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?
8 %
chance
Market brief
- Down 6.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 33% on Nov 5, 2026.
- Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
◆ Your call
What's your number?
Pick your own probability before you read the AI — then see how it compares.
Result by email
Find out how it ends
One email when this market resolves. No account needed.
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$19.6K
24h vol.
$4.8K
Liquidity
$6.9K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$19.6K
Bid / Ask
7¢ / 8¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
7¢
Start date
Nov 5, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades
Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x6e0596bd73ff0448c25269e4ef2fdcb7498e8c6e42ff1e1d150ced1561165d51&limit=50&takerOnly=true
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Pete Hegseth between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Pete Hegseth, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Pete Hegseth within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Pete Hegseth either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., "He isn't smart", "He has no judgment"). Disparaging him in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Pete Hegseth will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
- Event:
- Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?
Related markets
Open Politics markets from other events — closest to this one first.
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 6 to November 13, 2026?18 %▲ +14.8%
- Jensen Huang divorce by March 31, 2027?25 %▲ +6.5%
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 10 to November 17, 2026?4 %▲ +3.0%
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 12 to November 14, 2026?28 %▲ +8.0%
- Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028?60 %▼ −1.0%
- Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?14 %▼ −1.5%
Keep exploring
Moving today
Open markets with the biggest 24-hour moves on real volume.