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Updated 5 days ago

Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?

Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?

PoliticsCulture

8 %

chance

▼ −6.5%24h
Yes 8¢No 93¢

Market brief

  • Down 6.5 pp in the last 24 hours, after touching 33% on Nov 5, 2026.
  • Historically, 7% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (399 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Total volume

$19.6K

24h vol.

$4.8K

Liquidity

$6.9K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$19.6K

Bid / Ask

7¢ / 8¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

7¢

Start date

Nov 5, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
14¢$2,969
13¢$1,518
12¢$906
11¢$1,020
10¢$1,831
8¢$10
7¢$1,821
6¢$2,766
5¢$5,973
4¢$5,492
Asks (sell)Size
15¢$1,247
16¢$150
17¢$1,703
18¢$292
19¢$200
20¢$272
23¢$337
35¢$17
41¢$17
59¢$532

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades

Failed to load trades: Upstream request failed (410) for https://data-api.polymarket.com/trades?market=0x6e0596bd73ff0448c25269e4ef2fdcb7498e8c6e42ff1e1d150ced1561165d51&limit=50&takerOnly=true

Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults Pete Hegseth between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify. Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at Pete Hegseth, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify. A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at Pete Hegseth within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify. A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages Pete Hegseth either personally or professionally. This includes calling him a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., "He isn't smart", "He has no judgment"). Disparaging him in his professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at his specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare"). A statement made in direct reference to Pete Hegseth will qualify even if he is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject. The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
Will Trump insult Hegseth by December 31?

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