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Updated 16 min. ago

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?

Politics

69 %

chance

▼ −2.8%1h▲ +23.5%24h▲ +49.4%1W
Yes 69¢No 31¢
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Market brief

  • Up 49.4 pp over the past week (+23.5 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 3% on Nov 4, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 18 buys, 32 sells; the largest was $2.76K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,286 cases). That is less often than their average price of 73% implied — prices in this range have run high.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

◆ Your call

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50%
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Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

3 outcomes

Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$188.3K

24h vol.

$74K

Liquidity

$71.1K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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  • Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$184.9K

1m vol.

$188.3K

Bid / Ask

68¢ / 70¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

69¢

Start date

Jun 28, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
68¢$250
68¢$20
68¢$200
68¢$331
68¢$174
68¢$1,321
67¢$454
67¢$25
66¢$500
66¢$1,283
Asks (sell)Size
69¢$14
70¢$20
74¢$20
75¢$5
75¢$200
76¢$5
77¢$30
77¢$15
77¢$23
78¢$11

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 57%Sells 43%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
16 min. agoBuy69¢5
16 min. agoBuy70¢1,019
19 min. agoBuy72¢19
19 min. agoSell71¢7
19 min. agoSell70¢9
19 min. agoBuy73¢1
19 min. agoSell70¢20
19 min. agoSell70¢34
19 min. agoBuy73¢37
19 min. agoBuy68¢4,075
19 min. agoSell71¢48
21 min. agoSell67¢30
28 min. agoSell67¢474
29 min. agoSell67¢7
30 min. agoSell67¢7
31 min. agoSell67¢10
32 min. agoSell67¢7
36 min. agoSell67¢5
40 min. agoSell67¢495
40 min. agoBuy68¢512
51 min. agoSell67¢250
51 min. agoSell67¢250
51 min. agoSell68¢200
52 min. agoSell70¢512
52 min. agoSell70¢810
52 min. agoSell70¢1,000
53 min. agoSell70¢7
53 min. agoSell70¢1,000
53 min. agoSell70¢30
53 min. agoSell70¢10
53 min. agoSell70¢290
53 min. agoSell70¢946
55 min. agoSell70¢20
55 min. agoSell70¢10
55 min. agoBuy71¢11
57 min. agoBuy71¢53
58 min. agoSell71¢16
1 hr. agoSell71¢54
1 hr. agoSell71¢20
1 hr. agoSell70¢20
1 hr. agoBuy72¢99
1 hr. agoBuy71¢14
1 hr. agoBuy70¢1,752
1 hr. agoBuy70¢719
1 hr. agoBuy70¢200
1 hr. agoBuy69¢7
1 hr. agoBuy70¢43
1 hr. agoBuy69¢284
1 hr. agoBuy69¢61
1 hr. agoSell68¢12
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Event:
Pete Hegseth impeached by...?

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