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Updated 3 days ago
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 21?
99 %
chance
US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?
3 outcomes- October 2199 %
- October 3194 %
- November 3079 %
Total volume
$38.4K
24h vol.
$5.8K
1w vol.
$38.4K
1m vol.
$38.4K
Liquidity
$31.1K
Bid / Ask
99¢ / 99¢
Spread 0¢
Last trade
98¢
Start date
Oct 14, 2026
End date
Oct 21, 2026
ends in 2 days
How reliable is this price range?
Of 1,121 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 95–100% one day before resolution, 98.4% resolved YES. Their average price was 98.8%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 2¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 334 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 181 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 147 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 5 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 67 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 67 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 3 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 3 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 4¢ | 1,385 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 54 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 205 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 96¢ | 100 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 22 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 5 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 909 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 395 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 514 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 1,516 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 1,486 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 30 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 3¢ | 2,887 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 97¢ | 458 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 201 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 3¢ | 204 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 200 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 154 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 50 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 400 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 200 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 98¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 588 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 588 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 185 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 185 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 2¢ | 868 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 400 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 2¢ | 468 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 91 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 91 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 103 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 103 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 95 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 95 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 1¢ | 95 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 59 |
| 3 days ago | Buy | 99¢ | 20 |
| 3 days ago | Sell | 1¢ | 8 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
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◆ Kalshi comparison
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