Updated 3 wk. ago
Will Kari Lake be the next White House Press Secretary?
2 %
chance
Market brief
- At 2%, the market sees this question as practically decided.
- Last 22 trades: 17 buys, 5 sells; the largest was $189 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (587 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 1 yr. (Jan 1, 2028).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Next Press Secretary?
33 outcomes- Kush Desai22 %
- Anna Kelly13 %
- Scott Jennings8 %
- Dana White5 %
- Monica Crowley4 %
- Margo Martin4 %
- Maria Bartiromo4 %
- Taylor Rogers4 %
- Katie Miller4 %
- Elizabeth Pipko3 %
- Lauren Bis3 %
- Beni Rae Harmony3 %
- Lara Trump3 %
- Kayleigh McEnany3 %
- Harrison Fields3 %
- Karoline Leavitt3 %
- Natalie Harp3 %
- Tricia McLaughlin2 %
- Laura Loomer2 %
- Katie Pavlich2 %
- Rachel Campos-Duffy2 %
- Kari Lake2 %
- Alina Habba2 %
- Liz Huston2 %
- Steven Cheung2 %
- Nicki Minaj1 %
- Pat Adams1 %
- Hogan Gidley1 %
- Ari Fleischer1 %
- Jake Paul1 %
- Kaelan Dorr1 %
- Spencer Pratt1 %
- Matthew Boyle0 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$9.9K
24h vol.
$91.55
Liquidity
$11.3K
End date
Jan 1, 2028
ends in 1 yr.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$174.087
1m vol.
$8.3K
Bid / Ask
1¢ / 3¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
1¢
Start date
Oct 16, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 4¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (22)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 6¢ | 201 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 94¢ | 201 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 3¢ | 67 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 33 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 17 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 3¢ | 17 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 10 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 9 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 9 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 8 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 8 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 22 |
| 3 wk. ago | Sell | 1¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 2 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 18 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 18 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 99¢ | 18 |
| 3 wk. ago | Buy | 1¢ | 18 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve according to the next individual who the White House announces has been picked to be the White House Press Secretary who replaces Katie Zacharia by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. A person being announced as an acting or interim holder of the position will not count for purposes of this market. In the event that no individual is chosen to replace Katie Zacharia, or the role is abolished, by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement has occurred, subsequent withdrawals or replacement announcements will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the White House and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Next Press Secretary?
- Note:
- Neg-risk market (multiple mutually exclusive outcomes).
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- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?38 %▲ +18.0%
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- Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?40 %▲ +4.5%
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