Updated 24 min. ago
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
47 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 18.0 pp over the past week (+14.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 69% on Nov 4, 2026.
- Last 50 trades: 16 buys, 34 sells; the largest was $5.71K (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 48% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 35–65% seven days before the end resolved YES (125 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
- Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Total volume
$2M
24h vol.
$151.7K
Liquidity
$89.1K
End date
Jan 1, 2027
ends in 2 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
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- Smart moneyPro+Who holds the largest positions here, and how each wallet has done on resolved markets.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$1.1M
1m vol.
$1.5M
Bid / Ask
46¢ / 47¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
47¢
Start date
Apr 1, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 1¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 600 |
| 28 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 70 |
| 28 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 50 |
| 29 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 20 |
| 29 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 10 |
| 30 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 6 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 12 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 64 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 22 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 5 |
| 32 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 156 |
| 35 min. ago | Buy | 45¢ | 7 |
| 41 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 215 |
| 41 min. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 54 |
| 41 min. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 26 |
| 42 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 80 |
| 42 min. ago | Buy | 46¢ | 10 |
| 43 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 18 |
| 43 min. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 490 |
| 43 min. ago | Sell | 44¢ | 24 |
| 44 min. ago | Sell | 45¢ | 4 |
| 44 min. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 2,705 |
| 44 min. ago | Buy | 48¢ | 49 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 10 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 10,730 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 47¢ | 50 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 48¢ | 65 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 20 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 90 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 20 |
| 45 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 311 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 205 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 10 |
| 46 min. ago | Buy | 54¢ | 50 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 500 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 10 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 10 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 10 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 5 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 20 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 3 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 2 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 2 |
| 46 min. ago | Sell | 53¢ | 2 |
| 46 min. ago | Buy | 53¢ | 10,730 |
| 47 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 20 |
| 48 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 2 |
| 48 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 2 |
| 48 min. ago | Sell | 49¢ | 2 |
| 48 min. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 20 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
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