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Updated 20 hr. ago

Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?
27 %
chance
Curfew in a major French city by...?
4 outcomes- December 3127 %
- November 1518 %
- October 3114 %
- October 249 %
Total volume
$3.7K
24h vol.
$3.7K
1w vol.
$3.7K
1m vol.
$3.7K
Liquidity
$17.5K
Bid / Ask
26¢ / 27¢
Spread 1¢
Last trade
27¢
Start date
Oct 18, 2026
End date
Dec 31, 2026
ends in 2 mo.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 153 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 15–35% seven days before resolution, 20.3% resolved YES. Their average price was 21.3%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
Spread: 69¢Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (25)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 65¢ | 100 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 35¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 38¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 79¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 61¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 39¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 21¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Sell | 21¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 62¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 38¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 30¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 70¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 20¢ | 50 |
| 21 hr. ago | Buy | 80¢ | 50 |
| 22 hr. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 50 |
| 22 hr. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 50 |
| 22 hr. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 50 |
| 22 hr. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 50 |
| 23 hr. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 50 |
| 23 hr. ago | Buy | 50¢ | 50 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.
Smart money is a Pro+ feature
See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.
◆ Kalshi comparison
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The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.
Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.
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