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Updated 2 min. ago

France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?

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2 %

chance

▼ −45.8%24h
Yes 2¢No 98¢

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

3 outcomes

Total volume

$72.1K

24h vol.

$72.1K

1w vol.

$72.1K

1m vol.

$72.1K

Liquidity

$52.9K

Bid / Ask

2¢ / 3¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

3¢

Start date

Oct 18, 2026

End date

Nov 16, 2026

ends in 4 wk.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
2¢$209
2¢$500
2¢$895
2¢$1,921
1¢$220
1¢$417
1¢$2,405
1¢$5,832
1¢$4,189
1¢$1,250
Asks (sell)Size
3¢$698
3¢$396
3¢$586
3¢$195
3¢$1,921
3¢$120
3¢$793
4¢$415
4¢$1,500
4¢$5,249

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 43%Sells 57%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
24 min. agoSell98¢60
24 min. agoSell3¢60
59 min. agoBuy3¢400
59 min. agoSell3¢400
1 hr. agoBuy3¢100
1 hr. agoSell3¢100
2 hr. agoBuy2¢76
2 hr. agoSell2¢76
2 hr. agoBuy2¢4,000
2 hr. agoSell2¢24
2 hr. agoSell2¢1,326
2 hr. agoBuy98¢500
2 hr. agoSell2¢2,150
2 hr. agoBuy2¢1,000
2 hr. agoSell2¢1,000
2 hr. agoBuy2¢1,000
2 hr. agoSell2¢1,000
2 hr. agoBuy2¢100
2 hr. agoBuy98¢100
2 hr. agoBuy2¢600
2 hr. agoBuy98¢500
2 hr. agoSell2¢100
2 hr. agoBuy98¢503
2 hr. agoBuy2¢503
2 hr. agoBuy2¢497
2 hr. agoBuy98¢497
2 hr. agoBuy2¢1,060
2 hr. agoBuy98¢1,060
2 hr. agoBuy2¢100
2 hr. agoBuy98¢100
2 hr. agoSell98¢1
2 hr. agoBuy98¢1
2 hr. agoSell98¢1,764
2 hr. agoBuy98¢1,342
2 hr. agoBuy98¢50
2 hr. agoSell2¢100
2 hr. agoSell2¢272
2 hr. agoSell98¢478
2 hr. agoSell2¢478
2 hr. agoSell98¢87
2 hr. agoSell2¢87
2 hr. agoSell1¢11,251
2 hr. agoBuy1¢972
2 hr. agoSell99¢362
2 hr. agoBuy1¢1,011
2 hr. agoBuy1¢909
2 hr. agoSell99¢3,000
2 hr. agoBuy1¢417
2 hr. agoBuy1¢304
2 hr. agoBuy1¢750

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