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Updated 1 hr. ago

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?

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4 %

chance

▲ +0.2%1h▲ +0.0%24h
Yes 4¢No 96¢

France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?

3 outcomes

Total volume

$42.9K

24h vol.

$42.9K

1w vol.

$42.9K

1m vol.

$42.9K

Liquidity

$49.6K

Bid / Ask

4¢ / 4¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

4¢

Start date

Oct 18, 2026

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
4¢$20
3¢$308
3¢$2,959
3¢$131
3¢$1,000
3¢$100
3¢$46
3¢$420
3¢$400
3¢$1,050
Asks (sell)Size
4¢$1,975
4¢$800
4¢$343
4¢$181
5¢$200
5¢$300
5¢$3,952
5¢$3,551
5¢$3,061
5¢$1,514

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 70%Sells 30%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
2 hr. agoBuy4¢1,316
2 hr. agoBuy96¢1,115
2 hr. agoBuy96¢171
2 hr. agoSell4¢30
2 hr. agoBuy4¢2,644
2 hr. agoBuy96¢930
2 hr. agoBuy96¢146
2 hr. agoSell4¢22
2 hr. agoBuy96¢150
2 hr. agoBuy96¢87
2 hr. agoSell4¢1,289
2 hr. agoSell4¢20
2 hr. agoBuy4¢87
2 hr. agoBuy96¢87
2 hr. agoBuy97¢131
2 hr. agoSell97¢50
2 hr. agoBuy3¢61
2 hr. agoBuy3¢20
2 hr. agoBuy97¢650
2 hr. agoBuy3¢600
2 hr. agoBuy3¢50
2 hr. agoBuy97¢190
2 hr. agoSell97¢190
2 hr. agoBuy4¢278
2 hr. agoBuy96¢278
3 hr. agoBuy4¢6
3 hr. agoSell4¢6
3 hr. agoBuy97¢73
3 hr. agoSell97¢68
3 hr. agoBuy3¢5
3 hr. agoBuy96¢374
3 hr. agoBuy4¢73
3 hr. agoBuy4¢6
3 hr. agoSell96¢50
3 hr. agoBuy4¢245
3 hr. agoSell96¢1,000
3 hr. agoBuy96¢1,000
3 hr. agoSell96¢1,000
3 hr. agoBuy96¢800
3 hr. agoBuy96¢200
3 hr. agoBuy4¢255
3 hr. agoBuy96¢255
3 hr. agoSell96¢24
3 hr. agoBuy96¢4
3 hr. agoSell4¢20
5 hr. agoSell3¢2,031
5 hr. agoBuy3¢1,551
5 hr. agoBuy3¢100
5 hr. agoSell97¢261
5 hr. agoSell96¢50

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