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Updated 1 mo. ago
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
0 %
chance
California Governor Election Winner
23 outcomes- Xavier Becerra96 %
- Steve Hilton4 %
- Tom Steyer0 %
- Chad Bianco0 %
- Kyle Langford0 %
- Matt Mahan0 %
- Betty Yee0 %
- Stephen Cloobeck0 %
- Rick Caruso0 %
- Tony Thurmond0 %
- Leo Zacky0 %
- Katie Porter0 %
- Eleni Kounalakis0 %
- Eric Swalwell0 %
- Daniel Mercuri0 %
- Alex Padilla0 %
- Nicole Shanahan0 %
- Kamala Harris0 %
- Antonio Villaraigosa0 %
- Toni Atkins0 %
- Butch Ware0 %
- Elaine Culotti0 %
- Michael Younger0 %
Total volume
$2M
24h vol.
$1.1K
1w vol.
$1.1K
1m vol.
$1.1K
Liquidity
$360.5K
Last trade
0¢
Start date
Oct 9, 2025
End date
Nov 4, 2026
ends in 2 wk.
How reliable is this price range?
Of 436 resolved Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before resolution, 1.8% resolved YES. Their average price was 1.2%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
Orderbook
No orders
Snapshot from cache
✦ AI assessment
Generate structured research
Recent trades (50)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 171 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 171 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 6 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 2 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 1,000 |
| 3 mo. ago | Buy | 0¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 100 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 14 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 14 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 4 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 4 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 24 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 24 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 8 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 18 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 18 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 3 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 4 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 4 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 12 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 30 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 30 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 14 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 14 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 12 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 12 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 10 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 19 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 19 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 13 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 13 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 100¢ | 5 |
| 4 mo. ago | Sell | 0¢ | 5 |
◆ Smart money
Do the pros know something the price doesn't?
Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.
A signal is present in this market.
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Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature
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Related markets
The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.