Prediction market recap — Aug 15, 2026

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will John Healey be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?100¢▲ +99.5%2

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Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?100¢▲ +97.3%3Hamburg: Max Hans Rehberg vs Saba Purtseladze0¢▼ −94.0%4

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 15?100¢▲ +92.5%5Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?0¢▼ −90.5%6

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 16?100¢▲ +86.5%

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

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Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Market 100%AI 18%+82 pp gapUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Market 78%AI 14%+64 pp gapWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?Market 14%AI 34%-20 pp gapUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Market 19%AI 3%+16 pp gap

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?40¢Will Team Falcons Win the CS2 EWC 2026?26¢LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Legend Group72¢Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?9¢