Daily recap
Prediction market recap — Sep 6, 2026
The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.
This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.
Top moves
Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.
1Will "Onslaught" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?8¢▼ −90.5%2Will "Beauty in Black: Season 3" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?96¢▲ +70.0%3
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +68.5%4Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?89¢▲ +62.5%5Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds0¢▼ −59.5%6
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners100¢▲ +68.5%4Will "Onslaught" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2m?89¢▲ +62.5%5Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds0¢▼ −59.5%6Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢▼ −56.5%Where AI disagrees with the market
The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Market 85%AI 31%+54 pp gap
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 by December 31, 2026?Market 58%AI 35%+23 pp gap
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Market 13%AI 34%-21 pp gap
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Market 26%AI 46%-20 pp gapFresh AI research
Markets our AI analysed most recently.
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