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Prediction market recap — Oct 2, 2026

The moves that mattered across Polymarket, plus where the AI disagreed with the market. Fresh every day — no signup.

This is an archived recap. See today's latest recap.

Top moves

Biggest 24-hour price swings on the public markets.

1Will Bitcoin dominance be greater than 61.00% on October 2?Will Bitcoin dominance be greater than 61.00% on October 2?0¢▼ −97.8%2Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?1¢▼ −94.9%3Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?Will Drew Campbell come in third-place on Big Brother season 28?100¢▲ +92.9%4Will Anna Bright qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?91¢▲ +83.5%5Will Jorja Johnson qualify for the 2027 PPA Tour Finals?89¢▲ +81.5%6Will Zemun be relegated from the 2026-27 Serbian SuperLiga?92¢▲ +80.0%

Where AI disagrees with the market

The widest gaps between the market price and the AI's research-based estimate.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?+42 pp gapWill Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 28-October 4?+32 pp gapUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?+22 pp gap2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House-20 pp gap

Fresh AI research

Markets our AI analysed most recently.

Spread: Bills (-6.5)Spread: Bills (-6.5)53¢Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 2?Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 2?66¢Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?30¢US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?25¢

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