Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?

Market brief

• Down 4.5 pp over the past week (−1.5 pp in the last 24 hours).
• Last 50 trades: 23 buys, 27 sells; the largest was $66 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
• Historically, 8% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 5–15% seven days before the end resolved YES (409 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
• Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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