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Updated 19 min. ago

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

PoliticsGeopoliticsWorld

4 %

chance

▼ −3.1%24h▼ −3.2%1W
Yes 4¢No 96¢
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Market brief

  • Down 3.2 pp over the past week (−3.1 pp in the last 24 hours), after touching 10% on Nov 3, 2026.
  • Last 50 trades: 18 buys, 32 sells; the largest was $39.2K (sell). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
  • Historically, 2% of Polymarket Politics markets priced 0–5% seven days before the end resolved YES (587 cases). In this range the price has been a reliable guide.
  • Scheduled to end in 2 mo. (Jan 1, 2027).

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

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Understand this market

Background that stays useful after this market resolves.

Total volume

$2.2M

24h vol.

$48.7K

Liquidity

$81.3K

End date

Jan 1, 2027

ends in 2 mo.

What a plan adds on this market

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Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates

1w vol.

$123.9K

1m vol.

$293K

Bid / Ask

4¢ / 4¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

4¢

Start date

Mar 31, 2026

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
4¢$347
3¢$4,595
3¢$200
3¢$3,300
3¢$408
3¢$100
3¢$2,630
3¢$1,862
2¢$681
2¢$119
Asks (sell)Size
4¢$37
4¢$565
4¢$227
5¢$6
5¢$68
5¢$265
5¢$491
5¢$5,163
5¢$4,200
5¢$890

Snapshot from cache

Recent trades (50)

Buys 6%Sells 94%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
1 hr. agoBuy4¢2
2 hr. agoBuy4¢238
2 hr. agoBuy4¢238
4 hr. agoSell3¢414
4 hr. agoBuy4¢54
4 hr. agoBuy4¢50
5 hr. agoSell4¢60
7 hr. agoSell3¢101
8 hr. agoBuy4¢155
10 hr. agoBuy4¢13
12 hr. agoSell4¢60
13 hr. agoBuy4¢1
13 hr. agoSell4¢361
15 hr. agoSell4¢482
15 hr. agoSell4¢260
15 hr. agoSell4¢432
15 hr. agoSell4¢218
15 hr. agoBuy6¢2
15 hr. agoSell4¢3
15 hr. agoSell4¢2
15 hr. agoSell5¢779
15 hr. agoSell5¢2
15 hr. agoSell5¢52
15 hr. agoSell5¢4
15 hr. agoSell5¢77
15 hr. agoSell5¢1
15 hr. agoSell5¢1,042
15 hr. agoSell5¢3
15 hr. agoSell6¢1,063
15 hr. agoSell6¢12
15 hr. agoSell6¢41,660
18 hr. agoSell6¢2
20 hr. agoBuy6¢10
20 hr. agoSell6¢5
20 hr. agoSell6¢800
1 day agoBuy7¢5
1 day agoSell7¢200
2 days agoBuy7¢68
2 days agoSell7¢324
2 days agoSell7¢46
2 days agoSell7¢107
2 days agoBuy8¢100
3 days agoSell8¢21
3 days agoBuy8¢5
3 days agoBuy8¢146
3 days agoSell8¢54
3 days agoBuy8¢1,200
3 days agoBuy8¢433
3 days agoBuy8¢214
3 days agoSell8¢160
Rules & resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Event:
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

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