Updated 4 wk. ago
Pete Hegseth impeached by June 30, 2027?
79 %
chance
Market brief
- Up 9.0 pp over the past week (+11.0 pp in the last 24 hours), after dipping to 27% on Oct 12, 2026.
- Last 41 trades: 39 buys, 2 sells; the largest was $213 (buy). Too few trades of $5K+ for a big-money read.
- Historically, 69% of Polymarket markets across all topics priced 65–85% seven days before the end resolved YES (2,286 cases). That is less often than their average price of 73% implied — prices in this range have run high.
- Scheduled to end in 8 mo. (Jul 1, 2027).
A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this
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Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
3 outcomes- June 30, 202779 %
- March 31, 202776 %
- December 31, 202670 %
Understand this market
Background that stays useful after this market resolves.
Total volume
$14.3K
24h vol.
$1.2K
Liquidity
$16.9K
End date
Jul 1, 2027
ends in 8 mo.
What a plan adds on this market
Only what exists for this market right now.
- Full AI research reportProA cited research report on demand: probability, bull and bear case, key facts with sources.
- Your forecasts, scoredProSave your call on this market and see it scored against the result.
Order book, trades and more numbersDepth, spread, up to 50 recent trades, volume by period and dates
1w vol.
$10.8K
1m vol.
$14.3K
Bid / Ask
77¢ / 80¢
Spread 3¢
Last trade
77¢
Start date
Oct 12, 2026
Orderbook
Spread: 3¢Snapshot from cache
Recent trades (41)
| Time | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 56¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 56¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 6 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 37¢ | 23 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 3 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 63¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 47 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 47 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 3 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 3 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 36¢ | 403 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 50 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 64¢ | 333 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Sell | 67¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 90 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 33¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 67¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 32¢ | 20 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
| 4 wk. ago | Buy | 68¢ | 10 |
Rules & resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Event:
- Pete Hegseth impeached by...?
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