Skip to content

← Dashboard · Politics

Updated 19 min. ago

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?

Other
Log in for watchlist

51 %

chance

▲ +0.0%24h▼ −6.0%1W
Yes 51¢No 50¢

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

5 outcomes

Total volume

$1.1M

24h vol.

$60.7K

1w vol.

$120.1K

1m vol.

$533K

Liquidity

$52.4K

Bid / Ask

50¢ / 51¢

Spread 1¢

Last trade

50¢

Start date

Aug 7, 2026

End date

Dec 31, 2026

ends in 2 mo.

How reliable is this price range?

Of 8,884 resolved Polymarket markets across all topics priced 35–65% seven days before resolution, 48.7% resolved YES. Their average price was 49.0%. In this range the price has been a reliable guide.

This topic alone has too few resolved cases in this range, so all topics are shown.

A historical frequency for the price range, not a probability for this market and not advice. How we measure this

Orderbook

Spread: 1¢
Bids (buy)Size
50¢$782
49¢$593
48¢$1,620
47¢$1,206
46¢$989
45¢$3,310
43¢$16
41¢$1,347
40¢$856
38¢$200
Asks (sell)Size
51¢$169
52¢$801
53¢$621
54¢$100
55¢$209
57¢$16
59¢$27
60¢$100
61¢$5
62¢$148

Snapshot from cache

✦ AI assessment

Generate structured research

uses 1 credit

Recent trades (50)

Buys 82%Sells 18%
Recent trades with time, side, price and size.
TimeSidePriceSize
58 min. agoSell50¢21
58 min. agoSell50¢21
2 hr. agoBuy49¢148
2 hr. agoSell49¢98
2 hr. agoBuy51¢50
2 hr. agoBuy49¢81
2 hr. agoSell49¢81
2 hr. agoBuy52¢48
2 hr. agoBuy48¢48
2 hr. agoSell48¢12
2 hr. agoBuy48¢12
2 hr. agoSell48¢100
2 hr. agoBuy48¢100
2 hr. agoSell48¢16
2 hr. agoBuy48¢16
2 hr. agoSell48¢21
2 hr. agoBuy48¢21
2 hr. agoSell48¢40
2 hr. agoBuy48¢40
2 hr. agoSell47¢17
2 hr. agoSell53¢17
2 hr. agoBuy51¢10
2 hr. agoBuy49¢10
2 hr. agoBuy51¢39
2 hr. agoSell51¢14
2 hr. agoSell51¢12
2 hr. agoSell51¢13
2 hr. agoSell49¢102
2 hr. agoBuy48¢19
2 hr. agoBuy49¢19
2 hr. agoSell51¢6
2 hr. agoBuy49¢50
2 hr. agoBuy50¢7
2 hr. agoBuy50¢1,985
2 hr. agoBuy50¢62
2 hr. agoBuy50¢57
2 hr. agoSell50¢156
2 hr. agoBuy50¢101
2 hr. agoBuy50¢89
2 hr. agoBuy50¢50
2 hr. agoBuy50¢263
2 hr. agoBuy50¢11
2 hr. agoBuy50¢80
2 hr. agoBuy50¢660
2 hr. agoSell49¢156
2 hr. agoBuy51¢300
2 hr. agoBuy51¢66
2 hr. agoSell51¢66
2 hr. agoBuy51¢89
2 hr. agoSell52¢4

◆ Smart money

Do the pros know something the price doesn't?

Positioning of the wallets whose track record actually holds up — not simply the largest ones.

A signal is present in this market.

Unlock to see which side the qualified wallets are on, and how strongly.

Smart money is a Pro+ feature

See whether the wallets with a verified track record are positioned against the market price — with the evidence behind it, and woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

◆ Kalshi comparison

This market on Kalshi

The closest matching market on Kalshi, a regulated US prediction exchange — spot price gaps between the two venues.

Kalshi comparison is a Pro+ feature

Compare this market against its Kalshi counterpart — prices, volume and the gap between the two venues — and have the cross-market view woven into every AI research report.

Upgrade plan

Related markets

The most-traded open Politics markets from other events.